11 pages, In this paper, we investigate the interdependence among changes in the prices of beef, pork, and chicken in Japan using a time-varying coefficient vector autoregressive model. Our empirical analysis using monthly data from January 1990 to March 2014 shows that changes in beef prices have long-term influences on changes in pork and chicken prices. Moreover, current changes in the prices of beef, pork, and chicken are closely related to changes in their prices in the preceding two months. Additionally, we do not find that the bovine spongiform encephalopathy outbreak announced by the Japanese government in September 2001 had a long-term influence on the dynamic relationships among changes in the prices of beef, pork, and chicken in Japan.
6pgs, Diesel prices are at record levels. The prices of dry fertilizer for corn are double what farmers paid last year. Planting progress sits at the slowest pace since 2013, with farm machinery parts on backorder or in short supply. The latest Ag Economy Barometer shows farmers’ concerns seem to be overshadowing current optimism about commodity prices hitting decade-highs.
The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer improved in April to a reading of 121, which was 8 points higher than a month earlier. Despite this month’s increase, the ag sentiment index remains 32% lower than its April 2021 reading. This month’s modest rise in the barometer was attributable to an improvement in ag producers’ perspective on their current situation as well as what they expect for the future. The Index of Current Conditions rose 7 points to a reading of 120 while the Index of Future Expectations rose 9 points to an index value of 122. Similar to the barometer, both the current conditions and future expectations indices remain well below year ago levels. Ongoing strength in commodity prices appeared to be responsible for the modest sentiment improvement, although producers’ concerns about both rising input costs and their difficulties in procuring inputs continues to hold back sentiment. The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer sentiment index is calculated each month from 400 U.S. agricultural producers’ responses to a telephone survey. This month’s survey was conducted from April 18-22, 2022.
11 pages, While cow's milk and plant-based milk are often hypothesized to be substitutes, much remains unknown about the impacts that plant-based milks have on the retail price for cow's milk, if any. We explore the individual retail price relationship between two plant-based milks, almond and soy, with cow's milk. If the markets are cointegrated, and shocks in the plant-based markets affect the cow's milk market, it can add volatility to cow's milk prices, which could have implications for costs and benefits of the USDA Dairy Margin Coverage Program and price calculations by the Federal Milk Marketing Orders (FMMO). However, while we find evidence that plant-based milk prices react to shocks in cow's milk prices, we do not find evidence that cow's milk prices respond to changes in plant-based milk prices.
21 pages, Despite decades of investment in agricultural extension, technology adoption among farmers and agricultural productivity growth in Sub-Saharan Africa remain slow. Among other shortcomings, extension systems often make recommendations that do not account for price risk or spatial heterogeneity in farmers' growing conditions. However, little is known about the effectiveness of extension approaches for nutrient management that consider these issues. We analyze the impact of farmers' access to site-specific nutrient management recommendations and to information on expected returns, provided through a digital decision support tool, for maize production. We implement a randomized controlled trial among smallholders in the maize belt of northern Nigeria. We use three waves of annual panel data to estimate immediate and longer term effects of two different extension treatments: site-specific recommendations with and without complementary information about variability in output prices and expected returns. We find that site-specific nutrient management recommendations improve fertilizer management practices and maize yields but do not necessarily increase fertilizer use. In addition, we find that recommendations that are accompanied by additional information about variability in expected returns induce larger fertilizer investments that persist beyond the first year. However, the magnitudes of these effects are small: we find only incremental increases in investments and net revenues over two treatment years.
Agricultural Communications Documentation Center, Funk Library, University of Illinois Box: 202 Document Number: D11943
Notes:
Online from agriculture.com. 3 pages., Efforts of the National Cattlemen's Beef Association in response to decline of adequate price information in the fed cattle marketplace, due to concentration of meatpackers and their power in price setting.
Benavidez, Justin R. (author), Ribera, Luis A. (author), and Thayer, Anastasia (author)
Format:
Paper
Publication Date:
2020
Published:
International
Location:
Agricultural Communications Documentation Center, Funk Library, University of Illinois Box: 201 Document Number: D11717
Notes:
Paper presented at the 2020 Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting, Kansas City, Missouri, July 26-28, 2020. 20 pages., Authors assessed the impact of tweets by U.S. President Donald Trump on agricultural commodity prices during the trade war with China. Results indicated tht days with high counts of tweets with keywords associated with the 2018-2019 trade war led to statistically significant structural breaks in the price series for hogs, corn, cotton, and soybeans.
Via online issue. 2 pages., Describes recent experience in which a packing house fire resulted in lower fed cattle prices and higher values of choice boxed beef cutout values - resulting in frustration and anger in cattle country.
