29 pages, Agent-based models are important tools for simulating farmers’ behaviour in response to changing environmental, economic or institutional conditions and policies. This article introduces an agent-based modelling approach that combines behavioural factors with standard bio-economic modelling of agricultural production. More specifically, our framework integrates the cumulative prospect theory and social interactions with constrained optimisation decisions in agricultural production. We apply our modelling approach to an exemplary bio-economic model on the assessment of weed control decisions. Results show the effects of heterogeneous farm decision-making and social networks on mechanical weed control and herbicide use. This framework provides a generic and conceptually sound approach to improve the scope for representing farmers’ decision-making and allows the simulation of their decisions and recent advances in behavioural economics to be aligned with existing bio-economic models of agricultural systems.
18 pages, Recent studies cast doubt on the ability of abstract experiments to predict decision-making in the field. Thus, scholars have argued for more ‘realism’ by introducing context to field experiments. Yet, such realism may work against the induced values of monetary incentives in economic experiments. It is an open question whether contextual framing works best with or without inducing values, through methods such as the use of monetary incentives. Using a sample of 146 German farmers, we compare experimentally the predictive power of a framed lottery in an agricultural context vs. using an abstract version. For one half of the sample, lotteries are incentivised; for the other half, they are hypothetical. Although risk preferences differ between treatments, all four lottery tasks correlate poorly with farmers’ real-world use of risk management instruments such as harvest or hail insurance. Subjects who start with an agricultural framing are willing to take significantly greater risks in the lotteries. More generally, our findings cast doubt on the ability of lottery tasks to predict risk-taking in the field.
9 PAGES., Systematic reviews and meta-analyses generally focus on intervention impacts or outcomes. Less common, however, are reviews of the assumptions and theory underlying the pathways between intervention and outcome. We consider the hypothetical case for interventions to empower female farmers, either by prioritising women for new investments or re-allocating existing resources. Empowerment is defined as increased women's decision-making authority related to agricultural resources, management and production, and income. We hypothesise two avenues through which productivity or health benefits might arise: (i) eliminating female-male differences in, e.g. input access; or (ii) leveraging gendered risk, time, and social preferences leading women to differentially allocate resources. A review of evidence highlights the extent of support for the baseline, behaviour change, and economic benefit assumptions behind these hypothesised avenues. Findings suggest returns to investing in female farmers could be significant in various contexts but estimates of economic returns to empowering women in agriculture remain limited.
9 pages, Is there some kind of historical memory and folk wisdom that ensures that a community remembers about very extreme phenomena, such as catastrophic floods, and learns to establish new settlements in safer locations? We tested a unique set of empirical data on 1293 settlements founded in the course of nine centuries, during which time seven extreme floods occurred. For a period of one generation after each flood, new settlements appeared in safer places. However, respect for floods waned in the second generation and new settlements were established closer to the river. We conclude that flood memory depends on living witnesses, and fades away already within two generations. Historical memory is not sufficient to protect human settlements from the consequences of rare catastrophic floods.
11pgs, Many tropical countries are experiencing massive land-use change with profound environmental and socioeconomic implications. In Indonesia, oil palm cultivation is rapidly expanding at the expense of more traditional crops – such as rubber and rice – and forest land. While environmental effects of the oil palm boom were analyzed in many studies, much less is known about social effects. Here, we analyze how oil palm cultivation by smallholder farmers is associated with nutrition through changing income and gender roles. The analysis uses panel data collected in Jambi Province, Sumatra, one of the hotspots of Indonesia's recent oil palm boom. Regression models show that oil palm cultivation is positively associated with nutrition and dietary quality. These associations are related to income gains that improve smallholders' access to nutritious foods from the market. Oil palm requires less labor than traditional crops, so a switch to oil palm could potentially free family labor for off-farm economic activities. We find that oil palm cultivation is positively associated with off-farm employment of male but not female household members, which may be related to unequal opportunities and social norms. Independent of oil palm cultivation, female off-farm employment is positively associated with nutrition, even after controlling for household income.
22pgs, In recent decades, meat consumption patterns have been changing. This study investigates the main drivers of white and red meat consumption in crisis regions based on microeconomic theory, hegemonic masculinity theory, meat paradox theory, and nutrition transition theory. A quantitative questionnaire survey was conducted in Sulaymaniyah city in Iraqi Kurdistan in 2018. Data from 233 respondents were collected. Multifactorial linear regression analysis showed that the main drivers in the consumption of white meat and red meat are similar: higher income and preferences for the taste of white or red meat have a statistically significant, positive effect on meat consumption. Men consume white meat more than women. The consumption of red meat decreases when the respondent is concerned about the fat content of meat and animal welfare awareness does not have a statistically significant effect on the consumption of either type of meat.
9 pages, Sheep meat is an essential element within the multicultural mosaic of Mexican agri-food traditions. A total of 332 consumers were surveyed face-to-face in restaurants specializing in selling traditional sheep meat products. Our results showed that consumers could be segmented based on their perceptions, habits, and preferences towards sheep meat. For consumers, sheep meat is perceived as food with unique sensory attributes, coming from healthier animals than other species and traditional characters. Their willingness to pay extra is subject to the guarantee that the meat is safe, free of hormones and antibiotics, and to a lesser extent, certified organic. The multivariate analysis suggested three clusters or consumer profiles named passive, wholehearted, and deep-rooted, which explained the associations among attitudes, some demographic variables, and consumption frequency. The nascent national sheep meat industry needs to consider these concerns in developing marketing and trust strategies to attract, maintain, and build loyalty among Mexican consumers.
22pgs, We introduce the “coordination frontier” (CF), a simple practical tool to assess the likelihood of success of voluntary coordination in situations where, ex ante, the collective action solution provides an appealing alternative (e.g., for pest and disease control). We demonstrate the value of information conveyed by the CF, explain how to construct the CF from experimental data, and show how to apply the CF in practice. We illustrate the concept with an application to data from a framed field economic experiment, which was designed to elicit the preferences of Florida's citrus growers regarding their willingness to coordinate actions to combat citrus greening disease. This is a highly relevant case study not only because of the significant impact caused by citrus greening on Florida's citrus industry but also because a voluntary area-wide pest management program to control it had been established in 2010 and eventually failed; a similar program is now in place in California, where the disease spread is at an earlier stage. Had the CF been available in Florida, estimates of the (aggregate) chances of successful coordination could have been shared with growers to update their beliefs regarding the chances of successful coordination to help reduce strategic uncertainty. Policymakers in California could use the CF in such way and devise ways to encourage participation to increase the chances of reaching a desired coordination threshold.
21 pages, Because mothers are the primary grocery shoppers for most households, they play a fundamental role in the food their families eat. As such, it is important to understand their perceptions of potential sources of food safety and nutrition information. This study surveyed young mothers (i.e., 18-40 years old) across the United States to assess their awareness, knowledge, and trust of celebrities and social media influencers who communicate about food-related topics. The list of celebrities and influencers consisted of TV chefs, celebrities and influencers who espouse favorable viewpoints of food and agriculture, and celebrities and influencers who espouse more alternative viewpoints of food and agriculture. Respondents were usually more aware and knowledgeable of the celebrities and chefs than the influencers. They also generally trusted the TV chefs the most. There tended to be small-to-medium positive correlations between a respondents’ knowledge of a celebrity/influencer and their trust of that celebrity/influencer but not all were statistically significant. Communicators looking to influence the largest number of people would benefit more from working with celebrities, but social media influencers could still play a role in campaigns that target specific online communities where the influencers’ values align with community members. More research is recommended to expand to other audiences, as well as assessing other celebrities and influencers. Research can also address how consumers use social media to get food-related information, how trust could be affected by communication using different social media platforms, and content analyses of food-related communication by celebrities and influencers on social media outlets.
