11 pages, In this paper, we investigate the interdependence among changes in the prices of beef, pork, and chicken in Japan using a time-varying coefficient vector autoregressive model. Our empirical analysis using monthly data from January 1990 to March 2014 shows that changes in beef prices have long-term influences on changes in pork and chicken prices. Moreover, current changes in the prices of beef, pork, and chicken are closely related to changes in their prices in the preceding two months. Additionally, we do not find that the bovine spongiform encephalopathy outbreak announced by the Japanese government in September 2001 had a long-term influence on the dynamic relationships among changes in the prices of beef, pork, and chicken in Japan.
6pgs, Diesel prices are at record levels. The prices of dry fertilizer for corn are double what farmers paid last year. Planting progress sits at the slowest pace since 2013, with farm machinery parts on backorder or in short supply. The latest Ag Economy Barometer shows farmers’ concerns seem to be overshadowing current optimism about commodity prices hitting decade-highs.
The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer improved in April to a reading of 121, which was 8 points higher than a month earlier. Despite this month’s increase, the ag sentiment index remains 32% lower than its April 2021 reading. This month’s modest rise in the barometer was attributable to an improvement in ag producers’ perspective on their current situation as well as what they expect for the future. The Index of Current Conditions rose 7 points to a reading of 120 while the Index of Future Expectations rose 9 points to an index value of 122. Similar to the barometer, both the current conditions and future expectations indices remain well below year ago levels. Ongoing strength in commodity prices appeared to be responsible for the modest sentiment improvement, although producers’ concerns about both rising input costs and their difficulties in procuring inputs continues to hold back sentiment. The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer sentiment index is calculated each month from 400 U.S. agricultural producers’ responses to a telephone survey. This month’s survey was conducted from April 18-22, 2022.
11 pages, While cow's milk and plant-based milk are often hypothesized to be substitutes, much remains unknown about the impacts that plant-based milks have on the retail price for cow's milk, if any. We explore the individual retail price relationship between two plant-based milks, almond and soy, with cow's milk. If the markets are cointegrated, and shocks in the plant-based markets affect the cow's milk market, it can add volatility to cow's milk prices, which could have implications for costs and benefits of the USDA Dairy Margin Coverage Program and price calculations by the Federal Milk Marketing Orders (FMMO). However, while we find evidence that plant-based milk prices react to shocks in cow's milk prices, we do not find evidence that cow's milk prices respond to changes in plant-based milk prices.
