25pgs, We combine farm accounting data with high-resolution meteorological data, and climate scenarios to estimate climate change impacts and adaptation potentials at the farm level. To do so, we adapt the seminal model of Moore and Lobell (2014) who applied panel data econometrics to data aggregated from the farm to the regional (subnational) level. We discuss and empirically investigate the advantages and challenges of applying such models to farm-level data, including issues of endogeneity of explanatory variables, heterogeneity of farm responses to weather shocks, measurement errors in meteorological variables, and aggregation bias. Empirical investigations into these issues reveal that endogeneity due to measurement errors in temperature and precipitation variables, as well as heterogeneous responses of farms toward climate change may be problematic. Moreover, depending on how data are aggregated, results differ substantially compared to farm-level analysis. Based on data from Austria and two climate scenarios (Effective Measures and High Emission) for 2040, we estimate that the profits of farms will decline, on average, by 4.4% (Effective Measures) and 10% (High Emission). Adaptation options help to considerably ameliorate the adverse situation under both scenarios. Our results reinforce the need for mitigation and adaptation to climate change.
Saweda O. Liverpool-Tasie, Lenis (author), Salim Nuhu, Ahmed (author), Awokuse, Titus (author), Jayne, Thomas (author), Muyanga, Milu (author), Aromolaran, Adebayo (author), and Adelaja, Adesoji (author)
Format:
Journal article
Publication Date:
2022-04-19
Published:
United States: Wiley Online
Location:
Agricultural Communications Documentation Center, Funk Library, University of Illinois Box: 205 Document Number: D12576
27pgs, In spite of mounting evidence about the growth of medium-scale farms (MSFs) across Africa, there is limited empirical evidence on their impact on neighbouring small-scale farms (SSFs). We examine the relationships between MSFs and SSFs, with particular focus on the specific mechanisms driving potential spillover effects. First, we develop a theoretical model explaining two propagating mechanisms: learning effects (training) and cost effects (reduced transactions cost). An empirical application to data from Nigeria shows that SSFs with training from MSFs tend to use higher levels of modern inputs (have higher productivity), and receive higher prices and income. The results also show that purchasing inputs from MSFs reduces the costs of accessing modern inputs and is associated with higher inorganic fertiliser use by SSFs. Our results suggest that the benefits of receiving training and purchasing inputs from MSFs are particularly important for very small-scale producers, operating less than 1 hectare of land. This implies that policies which promote the efficient operation of MSFs and encourage their interaction with SSFs can be an effective mechanism for improving the productivity and welfare of smallholder farms, hence reducing their vulnerability to extreme poverty.
31pgs, This article aims at investigating the impact of financial supports from agricultural policy on farm-size dynamics. Since not all farms may behave alike, a non-stationary mixed-Markov chain modelling (M-MCM) approach is applied to capture unobserved heterogeneity in the movements of farms across economic size (ES) classes. A multinomial logit specification is used for transition probabilities and the parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood method and the Expectation-Maximisation (EM) algorithm. An empirical application to an unbalanced panel from 2000 to 2018 shows that French farming consists of ‘almost stayers’, with a high probability of remaining in the same ES class over time, and ‘likely movers’, which present a higher probability of a change in size. The results also show that the impact of subsidies and other economic factors depends greatly on the type that a farm belongs to. These findings confirm that individual characteristics of farmers may be relevant for policy efficiency and more attention should thus be paid to unobserved farm heterogeneity in both policy design and the assessment of their impacts on farm-size dynamics.
24pgs, Increasingly, the health claims made by food products focus on the marketing of specific molecular enrichments. Research exploring consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for health claims assumes that individuals hold perfect information on the benefits of the enrichment, and that their valuations depend solely on whether or not they need to improve their health. While health interventions are aimed at individuals at higher health risk, consumers may be unaware of the health risks that they face, limiting the effectiveness of a generic targeting strategy. Using an orthogonal experimental design, we explore the impact of two factors on the WTP for vitamin D enrichment in eggs: whether the information is person-specific or generic; and the presence of a health claim explaining the vitamin D enrichment. Results indicate that it is the provision of information, not the health claim, that influences WTP. Both generic and personalised information lead to similar increases in the WTP for vitamin D enrichment. While we only observe a direct effect of generic information on the WTP for vitamin D enrichment, personal information may also operate by increasing the perceived risk of vitamin D deficiency. Our results support the use of personalised health information during the choice task as a means of increasing the sales of healthy products.
15pgs, Research has suggested to not solely include cognitive processes but also affective processes in economic choice modeling. Studying Medjool dates, we conducted a laboratory experiment combining choice experiments and eye-tracking to account for cognitive processes. In addition, participants indicated their level of worry related to production practices to account for affective processes. Our results show that consumers worry more about pesticide residues than genetic modification in foods. They also pay more attention to labels related to these production practices compared to other labels; and the production practice labels received the highest willingness to pay (WTP). Results from linear regressions show that both cognitive and affective processes are associated with WTP. Especially in the full model for WTP for pesticide-free labeling an increase of attention by 1 s increases WTP on average by $0.10 and an increase of the level of worry from one category to the next increases WTP on average by $0.17. Overall, results show that including both cognitive and affective processes as explanatory variables is important when determining factors associated with WTP.
17 pages, Rural households in developing countries often depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. However, many also pursue off-farm economic activities either to complement their farm income or because they lack access to agricultural land. Rural off-farm employment is often informal and temporary. Searching for jobs can be associated with high transaction costs, which may be a constraint on some households’ participation in off-farm employment. The increasing spread of mobile phones may help to reduce these transaction costs. Here, we test the hypothesis that mobile phone ownership increases rural households’ participation in off-farm employment and—through this mechanism—also improves household income. We use nationally representative panel data from rural India and regression models with household fixed effects to control for confounding factors and unobserved heterogeneity. We find that mobile phone ownership is positively associated with the likelihood of participating in various types of off-farm employment, including casual wage labour, salaried employment and non-agricultural self-employment. This association is larger in female-headed than in male-headed households. The estimates also show that mobile phone ownership is positively associated with household income, partly channeled through the off-farm employment mechanism.
11 pages, While cow's milk and plant-based milk are often hypothesized to be substitutes, much remains unknown about the impacts that plant-based milks have on the retail price for cow's milk, if any. We explore the individual retail price relationship between two plant-based milks, almond and soy, with cow's milk. If the markets are cointegrated, and shocks in the plant-based markets affect the cow's milk market, it can add volatility to cow's milk prices, which could have implications for costs and benefits of the USDA Dairy Margin Coverage Program and price calculations by the Federal Milk Marketing Orders (FMMO). However, while we find evidence that plant-based milk prices react to shocks in cow's milk prices, we do not find evidence that cow's milk prices respond to changes in plant-based milk prices.
16 pages, There is growing evidence that religiosity affects important socio-economic outcomes. A potential channel through which religiosity affects these outcomes is by shaping individuals’ risk preferences. We combine a lab-in-the-field experiment, survey, and focus-group discussions to investigate the effect of religiosity on risk-taking among rural people in Ethiopia. We find evidence that religious farmers are more risk-taking. The effect is likely driven by the trust/belief in God as the omniscient and just power in determining outcomes under uncertainty. This is further corroborated by results from follow-up focus-group discussions.
13pgs, This article examines the effects of neighborhood on the farmer's technical efficiency (TE) level, adopting a stochastic frontier and spatial Durbin regression models. Our study exploits a three-wave household-level panel data from the Ethiopian Rural Socioeconomic Survey (ERSS) collected between 2011 and 2015. We find that farmers have an average TE score of 53%, implying a substantial potential for improvement in the production level. We further find that there is a positive and statistically significant spatial interdependence in TE levels between farms in neighboring communities. Input use, education, and other demographic characteristics are found to have significant positive direct and indirect effects. The findings suggest that policies and programs targeting productivity improvements in agriculture need to consider spatial spillover effects.
13 pages, In Ghana, groundwater, accessed through wells and boreholes, is generally unregulated and may be contaminated with pollutants including excess nitrates from agricultural chemical fertilizers. Yet, studies estimating how clean groundwater is valued are not available in Ghana. In addition, some research suggests that the pre-experiment information provided to survey respondents affects their valuation of an identical outcome. This paper estimates smallholder farmers’ preferences for groundwater protection using pre-experiment information focused on one of two outcomes: environment or health. The double-bounded contingent valuation (DBCV) approach is used to estimate willingness to pay (WTP) to protect groundwater quality. The estimation accounts for shift and anchoring effects, which are common issues with the DBCV method. The mean WTP from the health (environmental) information subsample is about US$19 (US$17) per acre, and the values are significantly different between the information conditions. The findings shed light on the importance of using precise information in eliciting WTP in a developing country setting.
