15 pages, This paper studies Chinese grape growers’ time discounting and its implications for the adoption of technology that can reduce the negative effects of increasing precipitation. Using primary data collected in Xinjiang Province, we undertook a contingent valuation of rain covers that protect fruit from rain and estimated a discounted utility model using these data. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, we find that local grape growers discount the future very heavily, with a discount rate of 0.17 per year, which is almost four times higher than the Chinese market interest rate. Farmers also tend to underestimate the benefits of adopting covers, with their purchase decisions appearing to largely depend on their past actual losses rather than future anticipated losses. These findings have broader implications for policies promoting proactive adaptation in response to likely increased rainfall in the region. Targeting farmers who give lower weight to events far off in the future and understanding that many farmers may tend only to make adoption decisions that have strong short-term benefits could improve the efficacy of climate policies that target agricultural technologies.
28 pages, We analyse gender differences in the response of smallholder farmers to droughts, taking the duration and severity of the even t into account. Using a novel weather shock measure that combines spatial rainfall data with detailed cropping calendars, survey data from Uganda and standard econometric techniques, we find that adverse weather events provide an opportunity for women to enter the commercial crop market by allocating land from subsistence to income generating crops. This counterintuitive pattern is, in part, explained by the greater propensity of men to allocate time to non-agricultural activities in the event of weather shocks.
18 pages, Government interventions in the agricultural sector have been historically justified by the existence of an income disparity between farmers and non-farmers. However, recent studies have found that such disparity is disappearing over time, particularly in the United States. This work offers the first longitudinal systematic assessment on the average income disparity between farm and non-farm units in the European Union, differentiating between old and new Member States. Using the EU-SILC dataset, both broad (having some farm income) and narrow (living mainly on agriculture) farm households are compared with a general sample of non-farm households and a more restricted sample of self-employed non-farm households. To control for household observable characteristics and time-constant unobserved factors, we use a fixed effects regression. Results suggest that the farm/non-farm income disparity has disappeared in the European Union unless we compare narrow farm households with all non-farm households: in this case, the former are more likely to be better off than the latter. A limited income disparity is found only in the case of new Member States for broad farm households only. Results are used to draw policy implications regarding the role of CAP in supporting farm income.
25 pages, n many countries farmers face pressure to adopt practices to promote sustainability and resilience while ensuring efficient business management to produce food and other agricultural products at reasonable cost. Given a policy context in which voluntary action is preferred over government regulation, understanding farmers’ motivation to embrace recommended practices has become a major subject for research. Increasingly, this endeavour is guided by the theory of planned behaviour, a reasoned action approach (Fishbein and Ajzen, 2010). We provide a brief overview of the theory of planned behaviour and an elaboration of good practices in the assessment of the theory’s constructs. We systematically review 124 applications of the theory to farmer behaviour on a number of specific review criteria. Based on observations of improper use, we consider theoretical and methodological issues and provide recommendations for research design and data analysis.
18 pages, Consumer preferences for food produced using currently prohibited production methods matter, especially in relation to potential trade deals. We conduct four discrete choice experiments examining UK consumer attitudes for food produced using several agricultural production methods currently prohibited in the UK, including chlorine washed chicken. Our results reveal negative preferences for these forms of agricultural production methods whereas EU food safety standards are highly valued. Willingness-to-pay estimates indicate that the positive values for food safety are frequently greater than the negative values placed on prohibited food production methods. Similarly, UK country of origin was highly valued but organic production was less valued. We discuss the implications of these results and, more generally, the use of stated preference estimates in economic modelling underpinning trade negotiations.
20 pages, One of the main drivers of food insecurity is pests, which are estimated to cause around 40% of crop losses worldwide. We examine the food security effects of plant clinics, a novel agricultural extension model that aims to reduce crop losses due to pests through the provision of demand-driven plant health diagnostic and advisory services to smallholder farmers. The study is based on survey data from maize-growing households in Rwanda, where 66 plant clinics have been established. Using switching regression and matching techniques as well as various food security metrics, including the food insecurity experience scale, we find evidence that participation in plant clinics is significantly associated with a reduction in household food insecurity. For instance, among the participating households, plant clinics contribute to a decrease in the period of food shortage by one month and a reduction in the severity of food insecurity by 22 percentage points. We also show that these effects are more pronounced for female-headed households. Overall, our findings suggest that plant clinics can play an important role in achieving the Sustainable Development Goal 2 of zero hunger.
22 pages, Raising agricultural productivity in developing countries is often said to reduce poverty more than comparable growth arising from other sectors. This claim has frequently been based on casual theorising, rather than empirical evidence. Productivity growth generates additional income and must benefit someone, though not necessarily the poor. It is conceivable that most, or even all of the benefits might go to others. Using region-level data from Thailand, we study the relationship between agricultural productivity growth and rural poverty incidence. The dependent variable for our regression analysis is the annual rate of change in rural poverty incidence at the regional level between the years for which poverty data are available. Agricultural productivity is measured as the annual rate of change in regional total agricultural productivity, covering the same time intervals as the poverty observations, but lagged one calendar year. Other control variables include regional non-agricultural incomes and the real price of food. The estimated coefficient on the change in agricultural productivity is negative and highly significant, implying that agricultural productivity growth does reduce rural poverty, holding other variables constant, though not more so than non-agricultural sources of income growth. The poverty-reducing contribution of recent agricultural productivity growth has been small. The poverty-reducing effects of long-term drivers of agricultural productivity growth are also analysed, using simulations based on the estimated model.
22 pages, Smallholder farmers in developing countries encounter multiple barriers in access to inputs and technology, which prevent them from reaping the benefits from market participation. Women farmers face additional constraints due to gender norms that further limit their engagement in productive activities. While collective action has been shown to improve access to markets and economic outcomes for farmers overall, the evidence on the effects of cooperative membership for women smallholders remains limited. We investigate empirically the economic benefits of collective action for women farmers in the honey sector in Ethiopia. Relying on a rich data set on women honey producers, both cooperative members and non-members, we evaluate the effects of belonging to a cooperative on three outcome variables through coarsened exact matching and regression analysis. Our results indicate that cooperative membership significantly increases the market price and the production quantity and, while the average effect on the share of product marketed is statistically insignificant, significant differences emerge for women with given characteristics. These results are shown to be robust to a number of tests that address biases from selection on observables and unobservables. An analysis of the heterogeneous effects of household membership in multiple groups finds that membership of self-help groups or farmer associations amplifies the positive outcomes from belonging to a formal cooperative. Finally, qualitative findings derived from the same communities indicate self-reported improvements in agency and self-esteem among women members, thus reinforcing the importance of the quantitative findings.
22 pages, The UK exited the EU on 31 January 2020, with a transition period agreed as part of the Withdrawal Agreement. During this transition period the UK and the EU will decide on their future trading relationship. No matter what form this relationship takes, there will be disturbances to agri-food markets. This study analyses four different scenarios with increasing barriers to trade, ranging from a very close relationship similar to the European Economic Area to a distant relationship in which the UK and EU trade on Most Favoured Nation terms, using the EU focused global agricultural sector model CAPRI. In the UK, food prices will increase in all scenarios, making consumers in the UK the biggest losers. Only in a free trade agreement scenario does the UK show an unambiguous positive net welfare gain in just the agri-food sector. In the case of the European Economic Area scenario, which assumes continued access to the single market, the net welfare impact would depend on the size of the UK’s continued contribution to the EU. In the EU, declining food prices would benefit consumers but the sum of the loss in farmers’ incomes and the UK’s EU CAP contribution would be much greater than the consumer’s gain. These impacts in agricultural markets under different future trade arrangements will also be influenced by the UK’s agricultural policy changes in direct payments as well as by possible further UK trade liberalisation after the end of the transition period.
22 pages, Commercialisation of smallholder agriculture is important for rural economic growth. While previous studies have analysed effects of commercialisation on productivity and income, implications for farm household nutrition have received much less attention. We evaluate the effects of commercialisation on household food security and dietary quality with a special focus on calorie and micronutrient consumption. We also examine transmission channels by looking at the role of income, gender, and possible substitution effects between the consumption of own-produced and purchased foods. The analysis uses survey data from farm households in Kenya and a control function approach. Generalised propensity scores are employed to estimate continuous treatment effects. Commercialisation significantly improves food security and dietary quality in terms of calorie, zinc and iron consumption. For vitamin A, effects are insignificant. Commercialisation contributes to higher incomes and increased nutrients from purchased foods, but it does not reduce the consumption of nutrients from own-produced foods. Enhancing market access is important not only for rural economic growth, but also for making smallholder agriculture more nutrition-sensitive.
