9 pages., via online journal., Residents of Mexico City experience major hydrological risks, including flooding events and insufficient potable water access for many households. A participatory modeling project, MEGADAPT, examines hydrological risk as co-constructed by both biophysical and social factors and aims to explore alternative scenarios of governance. Within the model, neighborhoods are represented as agents that take actions to reduce their sensitivity to exposure and risk. These risk management actions (to protect their households against flooding and scarcity) are based upon insights derived from focus group discussions within various neighborhoods. We developed a role-playing game based on the model's rules in order to validate the assumptions we made about residents' decision-making given that we had translated qualitative information from focus group sessions into a quantitative model algorithm. This enables us to qualitatively validate the perspective and experience of residents in an agent-based model mid-way through the modeling process. Within the context of described hydrological events and the causes of these events, residents took on the role of themselves in the game and were asked to make decisions about how to protect their households against scarcity and flooding. After the game, we facilitated a discussion with residents about whether or not the game was realistic and how it could be improved. The game helped to validate our assumptions, validate the model with community members, and reinforced our connection with the community. We then discuss the potential further development of the game as a learning and communication tool.
11 pages., via online journal., Fish farmers need to take into account many factors, including climate-related risks, when making decisions to invest in stocking ponds or cages in rivers. Officials, experts, and other fish farmers try to influence these decisions by communicating information about risks verbally or using text messages. Recurrent mass mortality events associated with droughts and floods suggest some communication efforts have been ineffective. Theories of risk communication make different predictions about what elements make messages influential. The purpose of this study was to improve understanding of the potential influence of inserting tactical messages into a communication text on the decision behavior of fish farmers with respect to climate-related risks. Experiments were carried out on hand-held tablets with 1050 fish farmers as subjects. Fish farmers were asked to imagine they faced a risk of drought, water shortage, flood, or increasing risks of drought in a drying climate. They were also given a plausible response measure that would require some investment, and then asked to indicate how likely they would adopt that measure. Farmers’ intentions to take risk reduction actions in long-term adaptation increased when the message they received re-affirmed that they were susceptible to the threat, an impact was likely or that the response to the risk was an effective measure. For shorter-term risk reduction measures, the effect of re-affirming response efficacy was to suppress intentions to act. This study found no evidence that appeals to fear, guilt, or anxiety emotions work; references to social norms, behavioral control, and benefit versus cost arguments also failed to increase intentions to act. The findings of this study supported some propositions of common risk communication theories but not others. The methods and findings are useful for improving the design of communications aimed at informing farmers about climate-related risks.
10 pages., via online journal., Uncertainty, insufficient information or information of poor quality, limited cognitive capacity and time, along with value conflicts and ethical considerations, are all aspects that make risk management and risk communication difficult. This paper provides a review of different risk concepts and describes how these influence risk management, communication and planning in relation to forest ecosystem services. Based on the review and results of empirical studies, we suggest that personal assessment of risk is decisive in the management of forest ecosystem services. The results are used together with a review of different principles of the distribution of risk to propose an approach to risk communication that is effective as well as ethically sound. Knowledge of heuristics and mutual information on both beliefs and desires are important in the proposed risk communication approach. Such knowledge provides an opportunity for relevant information exchange, so that gaps in personal knowledge maps can be filled in and effective risk communication can be promoted.
