9 pages, The present study was conducted in Faisalabad at Social Sciences Research Institute, Pakistan
Agricultural Reseaerch Council, Ayub Agricultural Research Institute, Faisalabad, Pakistan
during 2019. Countries wise time series data of exported fruits and vegetables were taken
from AMIS for finding instability of commodities and countries. Current study focused on the
compound annual growth rates of production, export quantity and value of mostly exported
fruits and vegetables. Growth trends of selected commodities were executed by using semitrend growth model. Coefficient of variation technique was used to find out instability of specific
commodity for specific country/market. Selected exported vegetables (potato, tomato, onion
and garlic) indicated instability results for Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Qatar and Indonesia among
given markets and within the given period. Among fruits kinnow export shared 24.96, mango
export results showed 22.08 percent share in total fruits export followed by 13.55 percent share
of orange and 8.6 percent export share of dates dried in total export from Pakistan. Results
observed for instability of exports to countries, minimum value of coefficient of variation (24.34
percent) was recorded for Bahrein market for kinnow export and Bahrein market was stable
among given markets. Similarly, mango results showed that export of mango to Germany market
was stable among given markets and within the given period. Export of orange to Saudi Arabia
market and export of dates to Bangladesh market was stable among given markets within the
given period of time. Finally, in order to lessen the instability, it can be proposed that Pakistan
ought to take steps to boost the exports of primary commodity and value added products to raise
revenue profitable.
22 pages, In this paper, we investigate the link between windfall gains and losses of income associated with commodity exports and economic performance in a panel of 45 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over the period from 1990 to 2019. Windfall gains and losses of income are measured in terms of fluctuations in a country-specific commodity terms of trade (CTOT) index in which each commodity is weighted by the ratio of exports of that commodity in the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). The CTOT index therefore reflects the commodity export specialisation for individual countries. The data on CTOT are taken from the International Monetary Fund. Additionally, we use changes in real GDP per capita as our SSA economic performance measure. We employ a random coefficient model that yields individual estimates for each of the countries included in the analysis. Our approach is based on the assumption that the effect of windfall gains and losses on real GDP per capita growth varies across different SSA countries. Our main conclusion can be elaborated as follows: first, natural resources have undoubtedly contributed to higher economic growth in SSA countries since 1990. Second, when SSA countries are analytically divided into two groups depending on their commodity export specialisation, we find that resource-rich countries—in particular oil rich—are the best economic growth performers during the observation period. Finally, we find that windfall gains from commodity exports are not significantly associated with increased real GDP per capita growth in most agriculture-exporting countries.
