10 pages., Smallholder farmers in Afghanistan are already facing various risks in agricultural production due to past continuous insurgencies. Climate change is likely to amplify the risk and make them even more vulnerable. The present study attempted to evaluate the vulnerability profiles of smallholder farmers due to climate change using the IPCC Framework. Primary data on relevant parameters for assessing climate change-led social vulnerability in the region were collected by classifying study region into two zones: the plain and the hills of Yangi Qala District in Takhar province, Afghanistan. Thirteen villages from each zone were selected at random, and face-to-face interviews were conducted with ten randomly selected households in each of the selected villages in both zones based on a pre-tested questionnaire. The questionnaire contained indicators for all three dimensions of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The collected data were subjected to a proposed vulnerability index, after estimating the indices of the three dimensions of vulnerability. The Iyenger and Sudershan weighting method was used to assess the contribution of each vulnerability dimension. Vulnerability was classified according to different categories based on beta distribution to evaluate the villages’ vulnerability status. The results showed that about 23% of all 26 sampled villages in both zones had low exposure, 26% moderate exposure and 51% high exposure to climate-change hazards and extreme weather events. High sensitivity was observed in 51%, moderate sensitivity in 7%, and low sensitivity in 42% of villages. High adaptive capacity to climate change was observed in 38% of villages, 19% were moderately adaptive and 42% showed a low adaptive capacity. High vulnerability was observed in 50% of villages, 4% were moderately vulnerable, and 46% had low vulnerability. A high proportion of smallholder farmers in the hilly zone in the sampled district were highly vulnerable, exposed and sensitive with a low adaptive capacity to climate change compared to the plain zone. The high vulnerability in the hilly zone was attributed to limited resources with a low adjustment capability to counter the disturbances, especially in crop cultivation, in response to climate change. A handful of low-cost and local approaches such as improving farmer extension services, introducing small-scale local infrastructure projects, reinforcing informal safety nets and protecting natural ecosystems could be viable cost-effective options that would also be sustainable given their low recurring costs and the limited maintenance required.
