14 pages., via online journal., This research aims to identify and communicate water-related vulnerabilities in transport infrastructure, specifically flood risk of road/rail-stream intersections, based on watershed characteristics. This was done using flooding in Värmland and Västra Götaland, Sweden in August 2014 as case studies on which risk models are built. Three different statistical modelling approaches were considered: a partial least square regression, a binomial logistic regression, and artificial neural networks. Using the results of the different modelling approaches together in an ensemble makes it possible to cross-validate their results. To help visualize this and provide a tool for communication with stakeholders (e.g., the Swedish Transport Administration - Trafikverket), a flood ‘thermometer’ indicating the level of flooding risk at a given point was developed. This tool improved stakeholder interaction and helped highlight the need for better data collection in order to increase the accuracy and generalizability of modelling approaches.
11 pages, Changes occurring in the Extension environment include that of climate. Reduced and sporadic rainfall is among the effects of climate change and variability with consequent negative effects on food production. Smallholder agriculture in most developing countries world-wide, including South Africa, is largely rain-fed. Extension agents, therefore, need to constantly improve their capabilities to remain useful to farming communities. The purpose of the paper is to determine Extension agents' climate variability coping competencies required to effectively support smallholder crop farmers' production. The study adopted a multi-stage random sampling approach to site and respondents' selection. Semi-structured questionnaire was used to collect data in 2014 from smallholder crop farmers in four municipalities of Limpopo province. Information was also collected from Extension managers and field-level extension agents of the Limpopo Department of Agriculture by means of questionnaires. The most popular climate variability coping strategy promoted by most extension agents was conservation agriculture. Small yield differences between Extension service-recipients and non-recipients indicate that Extension support has minimal effect on farmers' production. Agents need new competencies regarding correct application conservation agriculture. The study recommends the involvement of extension agents, scientists and farmers in adaptive trials for effective implementation of conservation agricultural practices to improve crop yields.
