18 pages, Recent studies cast doubt on the ability of abstract experiments to predict decision-making in the field. Thus, scholars have argued for more ‘realism’ by introducing context to field experiments. Yet, such realism may work against the induced values of monetary incentives in economic experiments. It is an open question whether contextual framing works best with or without inducing values, through methods such as the use of monetary incentives. Using a sample of 146 German farmers, we compare experimentally the predictive power of a framed lottery in an agricultural context vs. using an abstract version. For one half of the sample, lotteries are incentivised; for the other half, they are hypothetical. Although risk preferences differ between treatments, all four lottery tasks correlate poorly with farmers’ real-world use of risk management instruments such as harvest or hail insurance. Subjects who start with an agricultural framing are willing to take significantly greater risks in the lotteries. More generally, our findings cast doubt on the ability of lottery tasks to predict risk-taking in the field.
11 pages, While cow's milk and plant-based milk are often hypothesized to be substitutes, much remains unknown about the impacts that plant-based milks have on the retail price for cow's milk, if any. We explore the individual retail price relationship between two plant-based milks, almond and soy, with cow's milk. If the markets are cointegrated, and shocks in the plant-based markets affect the cow's milk market, it can add volatility to cow's milk prices, which could have implications for costs and benefits of the USDA Dairy Margin Coverage Program and price calculations by the Federal Milk Marketing Orders (FMMO). However, while we find evidence that plant-based milk prices react to shocks in cow's milk prices, we do not find evidence that cow's milk prices respond to changes in plant-based milk prices.
28 pages, We analyse gender differences in the response of smallholder farmers to droughts, taking the duration and severity of the even t into account. Using a novel weather shock measure that combines spatial rainfall data with detailed cropping calendars, survey data from Uganda and standard econometric techniques, we find that adverse weather events provide an opportunity for women to enter the commercial crop market by allocating land from subsistence to income generating crops. This counterintuitive pattern is, in part, explained by the greater propensity of men to allocate time to non-agricultural activities in the event of weather shocks.
17 Pages., Given the marked heterogeneous conditions in smallholder agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa, there is a growing policy interest in site-specific extension advice and the use of digital extension tools to provide site-specific information. Empirical ex-ante studies on the design of digital extension tools and their use are rare. Using data from a choice experiment in Nigeria, we elicit and analyze the preferences of extension agents for major design features of ICT-enabled decision support tools (DSTs) aimed at site-specific nutrient management extension advice. We estimate different models, including mixed logit, latent class and attribute non-attendance models. We find that extension agents are generally willing to use such DSTs and prefer a DST with a more user-friendly interface that requires less time to generate results. We also find that preferences are heterogeneous: some extension agents care more about the effectiveness-related features of DSTs, such as information accuracy and level of detail, while others prioritise practical features, such as tool platform, language and interface ease-of-use. Recognising and accommodating such preference differences may facilitate the adoption of DSTs by extension agents and thus enhance the scope for such tools to impact the agricultural production decisions of farmers.
18 pages, Consumer preferences for food produced using currently prohibited production methods matter, especially in relation to potential trade deals. We conduct four discrete choice experiments examining UK consumer attitudes for food produced using several agricultural production methods currently prohibited in the UK, including chlorine washed chicken. Our results reveal negative preferences for these forms of agricultural production methods whereas EU food safety standards are highly valued. Willingness-to-pay estimates indicate that the positive values for food safety are frequently greater than the negative values placed on prohibited food production methods. Similarly, UK country of origin was highly valued but organic production was less valued. We discuss the implications of these results and, more generally, the use of stated preference estimates in economic modelling underpinning trade negotiations.
20 pages, One of the main drivers of food insecurity is pests, which are estimated to cause around 40% of crop losses worldwide. We examine the food security effects of plant clinics, a novel agricultural extension model that aims to reduce crop losses due to pests through the provision of demand-driven plant health diagnostic and advisory services to smallholder farmers. The study is based on survey data from maize-growing households in Rwanda, where 66 plant clinics have been established. Using switching regression and matching techniques as well as various food security metrics, including the food insecurity experience scale, we find evidence that participation in plant clinics is significantly associated with a reduction in household food insecurity. For instance, among the participating households, plant clinics contribute to a decrease in the period of food shortage by one month and a reduction in the severity of food insecurity by 22 percentage points. We also show that these effects are more pronounced for female-headed households. Overall, our findings suggest that plant clinics can play an important role in achieving the Sustainable Development Goal 2 of zero hunger.
13pgs, This article examines the effects of neighborhood on the farmer's technical efficiency (TE) level, adopting a stochastic frontier and spatial Durbin regression models. Our study exploits a three-wave household-level panel data from the Ethiopian Rural Socioeconomic Survey (ERSS) collected between 2011 and 2015. We find that farmers have an average TE score of 53%, implying a substantial potential for improvement in the production level. We further find that there is a positive and statistically significant spatial interdependence in TE levels between farms in neighboring communities. Input use, education, and other demographic characteristics are found to have significant positive direct and indirect effects. The findings suggest that policies and programs targeting productivity improvements in agriculture need to consider spatial spillover effects.
13 pages, In Ghana, groundwater, accessed through wells and boreholes, is generally unregulated and may be contaminated with pollutants including excess nitrates from agricultural chemical fertilizers. Yet, studies estimating how clean groundwater is valued are not available in Ghana. In addition, some research suggests that the pre-experiment information provided to survey respondents affects their valuation of an identical outcome. This paper estimates smallholder farmers’ preferences for groundwater protection using pre-experiment information focused on one of two outcomes: environment or health. The double-bounded contingent valuation (DBCV) approach is used to estimate willingness to pay (WTP) to protect groundwater quality. The estimation accounts for shift and anchoring effects, which are common issues with the DBCV method. The mean WTP from the health (environmental) information subsample is about US$19 (US$17) per acre, and the values are significantly different between the information conditions. The findings shed light on the importance of using precise information in eliciting WTP in a developing country setting.
22 pages, The UK exited the EU on 31 January 2020, with a transition period agreed as part of the Withdrawal Agreement. During this transition period the UK and the EU will decide on their future trading relationship. No matter what form this relationship takes, there will be disturbances to agri-food markets. This study analyses four different scenarios with increasing barriers to trade, ranging from a very close relationship similar to the European Economic Area to a distant relationship in which the UK and EU trade on Most Favoured Nation terms, using the EU focused global agricultural sector model CAPRI. In the UK, food prices will increase in all scenarios, making consumers in the UK the biggest losers. Only in a free trade agreement scenario does the UK show an unambiguous positive net welfare gain in just the agri-food sector. In the case of the European Economic Area scenario, which assumes continued access to the single market, the net welfare impact would depend on the size of the UK’s continued contribution to the EU. In the EU, declining food prices would benefit consumers but the sum of the loss in farmers’ incomes and the UK’s EU CAP contribution would be much greater than the consumer’s gain. These impacts in agricultural markets under different future trade arrangements will also be influenced by the UK’s agricultural policy changes in direct payments as well as by possible further UK trade liberalisation after the end of the transition period.
